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The corn marketplace is fair nowadays. It s hardly profitable.
My type of supply and demand shows a normal futures valuation on 3.70 with projected ending stocks all-around USDA s Dec. 9 estimate. That s about as fair as you can get. Two factors can move the marketplace off that dime. Emotions, so-called animal spirits, can adjust. Or fundamentals can. Either force could mean higher or more affordable prices in 2016.
Emotions would be the factor planning to change first. Funds remain mostly very bearish towards commodities normally, including agriculture. There s a great deal of hope circulating today that the Dec. 15-16 Federal Reserve meeting will mark a turning point. The central bank is widely supposed to raise interest levels for the first time since 2006 having a modest quarter-point hike. An analysis released recently showed the dollar does weaken following the Fed s the very best hike within a cycle. A weaker dollar could possibly be good for commodities, and people following this distinct thinking can be like children before Christmas, hoping Santa provides them that in some way nice toy rather than underwear and socks.
The only downside to this distinct thinking is that it ignores the long-term reality with the market. With few exceptions within the last 40 years, rising rates of interest strengthened the dollar eventually. With the greenback 3% off its highs, this pick the rumor, sell the simple fact attitude may already be baked into values anyway.
Funds can still decide to jump into commodities, nevertheless it will be hard with OPEC pumping full bore and Iranian oil set to hit the marketplace soon. Ag may separate itself in the rest on the space, but that s been hard to do without fundamental drivers. A strengthening world economy will be nice, but challenging to accomplish with fear dominating the headlines.
Whether fundamentals difference in the short-term depends upon USDA s January report. The best argument which can be made right this moment for a lower production estimate comes from your strong basis that s organized even as soon as the roll to March from the cash market. The only issues with this argument would be the potential for that strong basis being the result of very tight farmer holding. Growers had a lot of storage for your crop in the majority of places. After Jan. 1 they can begin selling within the new tax year bills have to become paid.
The other difficulty with raising prices inside the wake with the Jan. 12 USDA reports comes with the magnitude in the reduction in production needed. A 300 million bushel cut would raise average futures prices one fourth, taking them more detailed 4. That would create potential for any run to profitable prices, nevertheless it s a fairly large reduction. USDA is different yields two bushels from November to January, but larger changes are fairly rare.
The market incorporates a few bright spots. Dec. 2016 corn is constantly on the hold near 4, helped by ideas high costs and tight projected margins help keep farmers from expanding production much. Production ought to be lower in South America, and recent rains haven t totaled solved moisture problems in Ukraine. Plus, a shift beyond El Nino from the growing season brings a 50-50 chances for yield reductions of 5% from normal.
Growers with old crop, specially in commercial storage, should think about holding longer if basis is a great one. Volatility from the options marketplace is fairly low, also it may be cheaper to keep on paper, with less risk. Protecting basis contracts with puts is the one other alternative. Those following our recommendations have priced 30% of expected production at the average futures expense of 4.97, including results of options and liquidation of bear spreads employed to protect basis. We also recommended hedging 10% of 2015 inventory with July 2017 futures or hedge to reach you contracts at 4.1075. These would presumably be rolled back in 2016 delivery if the market industry weakens, or elsewhere serve as being a long-term hedge.
To see the remainder from the corn market report, download document.
Senior Editor Bryce Knorr first joined Farm Futures Magazine in 1987. In addition to analyzing and authoring the commodity markets, he is often a former futures introducing broker and is usually a registered Commodity Trading Adviser. He conducts Farm Futures exclusive surveys on acreage, production and management issues and it is one on the analysts regularly contracted by business wire services before major USDA crop reports. Besides the Morning Call on he writes weekly reviews for corn, soybeans, and wheat which include selling price targets, charts and seasonal trends. His other weekly reviews on corn farming, basis, energy, fertilizer and real estate markets feature price forecasts for key crop inputs. A journalist with 38 many years of experience, he received the Master Writers Award on the American Agricultural Editors Association.
For more corn news, corn crop scouting information and corn diseases to view for, follow Tom Bechman s column, Corn Illustrated Weekly, published every Tuesday.
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2015 fundamentals of futures and options markets pdf free download